It’s been quite a year for Calgary real estate. Four Bank of Canada cuts. Buyer demand still outweighing listing supply. Benchmark prices. Creeping affordability issues. Inflation and shaky consumer confidence.
But now it is all hindsight, and 2024 is now in the Calgary real estate market rearview mirror.
Besides, savvy Calgary Realtors usually strategize and only deal with facts, figures, sales-to-listings ratios and trends. They usually avoid crystal ball gazing about what may happen with Calgary real estate. But the consensus, among some savvy Calgary area Realtors and from CREB is a stable, strong and steady 2025 Calgary market – and likely no “hot market” or gangbusters.
“Calgary’s 2025 market activity, at least the first half of the year, will likely mirror 2024’s pattern,” says gung-ho Jared Chamberlain, associate broker and co-owner of Calgary’s Chamberlain Group. “We’ll likely see a surge in spring activity, characterized by increased sales and lower inventory, though significant price increases are uncertain. The market will likely cool over the summer, followed by a smaller uptick in the fall.”
Despite this past year’s four Bank of Canada rate drops, his crystal ball hunch is that many potential Calgary buyers remain on the sidelines for various reasons. “They are either waiting for interest rates to drop some more, saving for down payments, or holding out for their ideal property to hit the market.”
For Doug Koop, broker/owner with Calgary’s RE/MAX Realty Professionals, new indicators for Calgary’s 2025 real estate market could happen as early as this month. “Calgary market trends will get back to a more normal and seasonal look. Properties will start to come onto the market after the first two weeks of January, after a typical seasonal pull back from mid-December to mid-January.
“Sales should increase from that point to the end of June, then slow down for the summer months, increase a little in September, October and November.
“The numbers show that inventory has been climbing and sales leveled off in late 2024, so prices have also levelled. In the detached and townhome market we expect that the market will look like 2024, sales and price gains should increase marginally, except at the low, more affordable end of the market. We are still short on affordable inventory so there will be gains in the lower priced end.”
Although for plugged-in Calgary Realtor Corinne Lyall, owner and broker at Royal LePage Benchmark, the crystal ball does show market changes for 2025. She explains that “Calgary real estate activity is always measured by the interplay of economic opportunity, net migration and interest rates. And – at least the first half of the year – will still be a bit of a real estate waiting game.
“The rising prices, low inventory, combined with rising interest rates in the past two years have left many buyers behind, waiting for their opportunity to purchase. With that said, now with interest rates lowering (albeit impacting mostly prime and variable rates) and more inventory on the market, we are seeing a greater increase of home sales in the mid-range ($550k to $700k), and less sales in the condominium market.”
Christian Twomey, with Calgary’s RE/MAX Landan Real Estate and CREB chair, also looks back to the last two quarters of 2024 as indicators of where Calgary’s 2025 real estate may be headed. “We saw an increase of sellers listing their homes for sale during the last two quarters of 2024. When there are more homes for sale, the buyers are presented with an increase of homes to choose from.
“Although we are still in a seller’s market, it is not as robust as it was in the first two quarters of last year. Looking forward to this year, the Calgary market will likely continue to see the gradual leveling of the market, if the inventory continues to increase.
“However, as the mortgage rates continue to trend downwards, we may very well see another robust Q1.”
Doug Koop is not expecting big shifts caused by lower rates. “A rate drop always helps, but after so many years of rates sitting around two per cent, today’s rates (and marginal decreases) may not really phase 2025 Calgary homebuyers.
Chamberlain is also cautious about the 2025 impact of mortgage rate drops. “The Bank of Canada has stated in writing that they expect it to take 18 to 20+ months for an interest rate drop to impact the markets. So, it is unlikely that the last year’s end of the year drops and any early 2025 drop would trigger a significant impact on their own. Rather, it is the cumulative effect of all the drops that is helping higher-priced cities become affordable again on a monthly basis.”
Calgary Realtors have been hoping and planning for the positivity of Calgary real estate returning to a balanced market, and 2025 may be getting the balance better. “There is still an underlying issue with lower priced homes and condos,” Koop says. “The market will continue to favor the seller at the lower end and shift to a more balanced look as you move up in price ranges.
“Condos, however, seem to be on a different trajectory. Condo inventory is increasing, condo rental inventory is increasing and it looks as though this trend will continue well into this new year.”
