Into the final quarter of the year, and despite still dealing with the impact of speedbumps like prices and affordability, low inventories, slightly dropping but still discouraging mortgage rates and sluggish Calgary consumer confidence, the Calgary real estate and rental market gained positivity and momentum.
Brokers, analysts, the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB®) and CMHC monitor the ever-changing pulse of the Calgary real estate market. They flag some important factors about the Calgary market – today and next year.
Supply and demand: Like most markets across the country, major cities are facing serious housing and rental shortages. As the demand for affordable Calgary accommodations continues to outweigh the supply, housing and rental prices will continue to skyrocket.
Prices: The ongoing demand for quality housing is pushing up the price of homes in Calgary. Analysts suggest that over the next decade, housing prices are expected to increase by up to five per cent each year.
Rentals: A serious shortage in Calgary rental properties is driving rent prices beyond what many can afford. More people are looking at buying a home rather than paying rent.
The CREB late-summer housing market report showcases some encouraging good news for Calgary re-sales. New listings have risen for the fourth consecutive quarter, compared to the previous year. CREB notes that much of the gains have occurred in the upper price ranges of each property type, as rising prices and persistently high lending rates are encouraging more sellers to list their properties.
The increase in new listings compared to sales caused the sales-to-new listings ratio to fall below 80 per cent for the first time since Q1 2023. And Calgary continues a seller’s market.
CREB highlighted that, in Q2 of this year, sales did slow by three per cent compared to the same period last year, the decline was driven by lower-priced properties, where supply levels are the lowest. Despite this slowdown, sales levels remained 29 per cent above long-term trends.
By mid-year, Calgary momentum showed that sales were nearly six per cent higher than last year’s levels. Despite the constant variables and ups and downs, CMHC is also bullish about the Calgary market and suggests Calgary could soon match peak levels seen in early 2022, and reach new highs by 2026.
Although CMHC expected weak economic growth in 2024, it is projecting a momentum regain in 2025 – 2026, as interest rates continue to decrease.
“We forecast lower housing starts in 2024 but improvements are projected for the next two years,” says Taylor Pardy, CMHC’s lead economist for the Prairies and Territories. “The first half of this year was robust for the Calgary market. Re-sales were up slightly, to 2022 levels, when rates were much lower.”
While the two Bank of Canada rate cuts are sparking increased activity and sales, the continuing Calgary migration surge, combined with a low supply of Calgary listings, is nudging home prices higher and unaffordability continues to steer Calgary consumers toward lower-price options.
According to the mid-summer Market Report Summary from nesto, the popular Canadian digital mortgage company:
- Calgary’s number of home sales saw a 13 per cent yearly decline.
- The benchmark home price rose 8.5 per cent, year-over-year, to $608,000.
- The average home price rose 13 per cent to $623,245.
- Detached home average price increased by 13.6 per cent, to $829k.
- Semi-detached home average price increased by 6 per cent to $666k.
- Townhouse average price increased by 17 per cent to $479k.
- Condo apartment average prices increased by 18.4 per cent to $357k.
Christian Twomey, respected Calgary realtor with RE/MAX Landan Real Estate and plugged-in CREB® chair is gung-ho that: “There is currently positive momentum for both home buyers and home sellers in the Calgary region. Sellers recognize positive momentum, knowing that market demand is still very strong. A property that is effectively priced and marketed by a professional Realtor will potentially accrue strong interest from several potential buyers.
“For buyers, the positive momentum is found in the understanding that resale homes and new construction home starts have begun to increase.”
He explains that the various factors impacting the Calgary real estate market have triggered some changes and adjustments. “High interest rates have made lower-priced detached homes more attractive. However, the number of available homes in this price range has really boosted the demand. And, as demand increases, so do the prices.
“As detached home pricing have spiked, buyers have transitioned to other home types. For example, in 2022, detached homes made up 55 per cent of sales, compared to 45 per cent, today. The difference is made up in semi attached homes, townhomes and apartments.”
Jared Chamberlain, broker and team lead with Calgary’s Chamberlain Group mentions: “There is a lot of positive momentum in the Calgary market. When you look at many monthly analyses of all the major cities in Canada, Calgary and Alberta still seem positive.
“There are many tired buyers in our market who may have stopped looking for new homes because they have lost out on multiple offers. Additionally, some sellers are asking way too much for their homes. The market is shifting but not reversing at this point. Over the summer, we saw it take a break, enjoy the sun and slow down. Now that we head into September and October, we could see another push.”
Chamberlain also notes the change in the types of listing which are selling – and listings which do not. “While the shift may not be long-term, in 2024 there was definitely a shift from detached houses toward condos and townhouses. In fact, the largest growth communities from Q2 2024 vs the growth communities of Q2 2023 were areas with mainly condos.
“Many buyers have not been able to save a downpayment or increase their shopping budgets as quick as the market has risen, having to adjust what they are looking for.”
CMHC’s Taylor Pardy points out that the Calgary market is well positioned for some key factors which will translate into positive changes.
“We projected that rates will continue to decline and influence Calgary demand. The market has been resilient and, as rates come down even further, longer term rates will be even stronger in 2025.” He explains that, at the moment, lower priced sectors of the market, like condos and townhomes are more popular, especially with people entering the market,
“As rates come down, Calgary’s single detached segment will pick-up, likely triggering more price increases at a faster pace.”
CREB chair Christian Twomey is plugged-in to Calgary’s market dynamic and forecasts positivity. “It’s still a bit early to make firm predictions for next year, but if slower growth in pricing persists and the cost of borrowing continues to get lower, affordability will be greatly improved.
“Regardless, the Calgary region is without question on the top of the list for families from across the country to move to, due to the boundless opportunities, phenomenal lifestyle and affordable home prices when compared to other major centers in Canada.”
Real estate is consistently guided by the art and science of “comparables.” When it comes to guesswork about the 2025 market, real estate professionals compare the Calgary market – with comparables like Vancouver and Toronto.
“And the comparables look very good for Calgary,” Chamberlain says. “Q1 and Q2 of 2025 could see good momentum, because major markets in Ontario and B.C. might experience price growth again. If they do, Calgary and other Alberta cities could see an influx of people moving here.
“Between now and some point in 2025, I believe there is a huge opportunity for local Calgarians to move and make changes they have wanted, without large cash purchases from Ontario and B.C. buyers getting in the way.”
