By 2046, Canada’s population of seniors aged 85 and older is projected to nearly triple, climbing from about 900,000 in 2023 to 2.5 million. With the oldest Baby Boomers nearing 80, this demographic shift is transforming the country’s retirement living landscape and raising urgent questions about how prepared the system is to accommodate their needs.
“Canada is experiencing one of the most profound demographic shifts with our population,” states Geoff McIlmoyle, executive vice president of Aspira Retirement Operations. “Seniors will account for one in four Canadians within the next 10 years.”
This surge is putting pressure on retirement residences and continuing care facilities to evolve. For Aspira Retirement Living, which operates communities in Alberta, British Columbia, Saskatchewan and Ontario, this means expanding capacity and rethinking programs and care models.
“At Aspira Retirement Living, we are responding by expanding capacity, innovating our care models, and offering signature programs that support resident health and happiness,” explains McIlmoyle.
One example is Calgary-based Aspira Britannia Retirement Living, which offers a comprehensive wellness model with culinary, recreational and health services all under one roof. Residents benefit from 24/7 nursing support, an RN on call, an onsite physician twice a week and access to services like physiotherapy, dental hygiene, foot care and remote pharmacy support.
Despite rising construction costs slowing growth across the sector, Aspira continues to invest in new developments, with its newest retirement residence opening in Brantford, Ontario in fall 2025.
As the senior population expands, so does the demand for continuing care beds – facilities designed to support people with medical or significant personal care needs. These beds are in short supply, explains Lorian Hardcastle, assistant professor in the Faculty of Law at the University of Calgary.
“For too long, the health care system has focused on the acute care sector and on dealing with immediate issues, rather than being forward thinking about future needs like continuing care beds,” notes Hardcastle.
She also points out that while provinces such as Alberta have announced new developments – like the addition or replacement of 1,600 continuing care beds in 2024 – these are reactive measures. “These announcements do not represent the province being proactive about increased demand – they are playing catchup and supply is currently not sufficient to meet demand.”
According to the Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI), long-term care capacity in Canada will need to almost double in the next decade. That challenge is intensified by ongoing staffing shortages.
“Building a new bed is only half the battle,” emphasizes Hardcastle. “You also have to be able to staff that bed and there are significant ongoing challenges with the recruitment and retention of health care workers.”
The pandemic further exposed gaps in staffing and working conditions in continuing care. Alberta’s recent reforms include a new agency, Assisted Living Alberta, with a $3.8 billion budget to oversee home care, community care and facility-based continuing care. But Hardcastle warns fragmentation could be a concern.
“On the one hand, this organization will have the benefit of focusing exclusively on continuing care,” observes Hardcastle. “However, there are also potential concerns, such as breaking the system into different parts causing fragmentation and a lack of integration.”
The impact of limited continuing care beds is already visible in hospitals. Patients who no longer need acute care often stay longer than necessary due to a lack of space in continuing care facilities.
“It is expensive to keep people in hospital longer than they need to be there and it can have downstream effects in the health care system,” remarks Hardcastle. In Calgary, about 11 per cent of hospital beds in late 2024 were occupied by patients who required an alternate level of care, according to Alberta Health Quality Council data.
Another growing trend is “aging in place,” where seniors receive support to remain in their homes longer. The approach offers benefits like maintaining social ties and avoiding institutionalization.
“There can be significant benefits to individuals,” explains Hardcastle. “Accomplishing this requires investment and better availability of things like home care services.”
A 2021 Alberta review of continuing care consulted seniors directly. The report emphasized overall quality of care – with areas like meals and access to technology needing the most improvement. Recreation and physical therapy were rated lower, while access to medical professionals ranked higher. The report also highlighted a need for greater choice, both in care options and daily routines.
These insights reflect what Aspira sees in its residences.
“We’re seeing a new generation of seniors who are thinking ahead and planning for more than just care in retirement living,” comments McIlmoyle. “Seniors are looking for vibrant communities that reflect their lifestyle, values, and desire to contribute their professional skills and personal talents to activities they find meaningful.”
The Baby Boomer generation, known for independence and activity, is reshaping expectations. Aspira’s model includes assisted living, memory care and respite services, allowing residents to age in place without needing to move as care needs change.
“Our Purpose, cultivating happiness in daily life, is reflected in how we connect with residents personally, support their independence and encourage lifelong growth,” adds McIlmoyle.
At Aspira Britannia, residents participate in movie nights, guest speaker sessions, seasonal events and creative workshops, curated with their input. A Resident Engagement Manager and Journey Program Manager collaborate with residents to tailor programs to their interests.
Hardcastle emphasizes the importance of building with the future in mind, not only to meet current needs, but also to ensure flexibility for future health care uses once the Baby Boomer wave passes.
“When we build new beds, we need to be mindful not only of how they will be used in the immediate future, but how those beds and facilities might be repurposed for other health care uses in the future,” explains Hardcastle. “Unfortunately, a lot of times in health care, the focus of policymakers is putting out immediate fires rather than engaging in this kind of thoughtfulness about the future.”
Waitlists remain a reality, particularly in high-demand regions. But Aspira’s networked model allows families to consider nearby locations when space is limited.
“Waitlists vary depending on the retirement residence and location,” notes McIlmoyle. “If the location and suite they are looking for is not available, we are able to explore options at our nearby residences.”
As Canada prepares for the evolving needs of its aging population, both public and private sectors face a shared challenge: to deliver not only more capacity, but also higher quality, greater flexibility and a vision for dignified aging.
“Seniors want more than a bed – they want autonomy, connection and a community,” states McIlmoyle. Meeting that expectation, he adds, requires coordinated investment and innovation.
According to the Conference Board of Canada, “Canada will need to nearly double the number of long-term care beds by 2035 to meet growing demand – an increase of 199,000 beds at a cost of $64 billion.” That investment, the report says, “is essential to avoid even more acute system pressures in the decades ahead.”
The aging of Canada’s Baby Boomers is no longer a distant issue; it is already reshaping care delivery across the country. The demographic shift demands coordinated, forward-looking responses that go beyond infrastructure to prioritize personalization, independence and community.
If governments and providers fail to keep pace, the effects will ripple far beyond seniors’ residences – into emergency rooms, hospital corridors and the lives of families. But if the sector adapts with foresight and compassion, Canada can lead the way in redefining what it means to grow older, not as a burden, but as a life stage full of potential.
