Alberta has seen the strongest employment growth of all large provinces and is forecast to lead in economic growth as well. Alberta economy is again the strongest in Canada – growing and creating jobs – but it is also feeling the pressures of a rapidly expanding population increasing unemployment rates and housing costs.
Despite interest rates, business expectations and intentions are strong. Alberta businesses are among the most optimistic in the country, forward-looking indicators are up even since last quarter, and they intend to continue to spend on capital this year. Further, Alberta is attracting a larger share of venture capital dollars, despite a national dip in overall investment.
Report Highlights
Alberta’s Job Growth Lead by Private Sector Surge Amid Labour Market Challenges: Over the past year, Alberta’s economy added nearly 70,000 new jobs, with the private sector leading growth at 4.8 per cent, surpassing all other large provinces. Key contributors were industries like resources (+25,000) and hospitality (+21,000). Despite job gains, the labour market is strained by population growth, causing a drop in job vacancies and an increase in unemployment rates, notably in Calgary, now Canada’s highest at 8.1 per cent.
Rapid Growth Equals Financial Strain for Albertans: Rapid growth in the province has boosted demand for goods and services, but the housing market can’t keep up, driving rent up 15.7 per cent and home prices higher. Albertans’ wage growth lags behind other provinces, worsening their financial situations, though mortgage arrears and bankruptcies remain low. Spending on clothing, dining out and sporting goods has dropped, but retailers of home goods, vehicles and personal care products are thriving due to the population boom.
High Interest Rates and Labour Shortages Challenge Housing Boom: The Canadian economy remains weak, driven only by population growth and consumer spending, with 2024 growth forecasted below 1 per cent. Despite expected cuts by the Bank of Canada, high interest rates will challenge mortgage renewals. Provincial indicators show resilience with increased wholesale trade and rising energy exports. Residential construction is strong, especially in Edmonton and Calgary, but labour shortages and financing costs may slow progress.
Provincial Growth Forecasted to Lead Nation Despite Labour Shortages and Sectoral Challenges: Alberta’s growth was 1.5 per cent last year, coming in lower than expectations, but is forecasted to reach 1.7 per cent this year and 2.5 per cent next year – topping all large provinces. Oil production is key to this growth, though per capita growth will be negative due to population increases. Business outlooks are highly positive, with improved conditions and financing access, though labour shortages remain a concern. Optimism is somewhat lower in oil, gas and agriculture sectors due to inflation and rising costs.
Background
We know there is so much economic data and information out there, and that you want a way to see it all in a snapshot with a view looking forward and not just back. That’s why we created the Alberta Snapshot, a quarterly executive summary that helps you keep the pulse on what is happening in Alberta’s economy – the good, bad and urgent.
We use a wide and diverse range of indicators including data on jobs, consumer spending and debt, business openings and closings, population growth, economic forecasts and more to assess and synthesize economic activity, business conditions and social well-being in a way that is meaningful to Albertans and Alberta businesses.
