Ongoing tensions with the U.S. are prompting many Canadians to pause and often look inward when deciding where to vacation and invest, says industry experts.
Brad Hawker, an associate broker with Royal LePage Solutions in Canmore, says geopolitical uncertainty is playing a growing role in where buyers are looking to purchase recreational properties.
He’s heard from many prospective purchasers who are waiting for more calmness or specific political milestones, such as the U.S. midterms, before moving forward. Others are not waiting and, instead, are looking at markets closer to home such as Canmore.
“We have received more inquiries in the last year than we ever have. People are looking to get out of the U.S. People are choosing to take their dollars elsewhere,” says Hawker.
“My forecast is that the continued challenges that Canada is having with the United States is going to make some people think differently.”
The 2025 Royal LePage Winter Recreational Property Report released late last year notes 47 per cent of Royal LePage recreational property experts report more inquiries from domestic buyers. Meanwhile, 27 per cent of experts note an increase in the number of American buyers inquiring about recreational real estate in their area over the past year.
Overall, the report highlights a significant rebound in Canada’s popular ski regions following a period of sluggish activity in 2024. In Canmore, the median price of a single-family detached home increased by 9.5 per cent year-over-year to $1.8 million, while condo dipped slightly by 1.3 per cent to $754,700.
Kristen Kyle, broker-owner at REMAX Alpine Realty in Canmore, has seen some Canadians selling U.S. recreational property and reallocating back into Canada. Yet she says it’s not widespread, and that it’s rarely driven by tariffs alone.
“It’s more of a sentiment shift than a dramatic behavioural one, but it’s noticeable,” she says. “When uncertainty increases, Canadians tend to focus closer to home and prioritize markets they understand and actively use.”
Last year’s Canadian cabin and cottage trends report issued by REMAX noted 48 per cent of Canadians say they are less likely to travel south of the border, creating heightened interested in Canadian destinations and a boon to the domestic recreational property market.
The report anticipated the average price in Alberta’s recreational property market to rise by 3.3 per cent last year – a number that Kyle says proved to be relatively accurate by year’s end.
“Demand continues to be supported by record Banff National Park visitation, long-term population growth in the Bow Valley and limited new inventory,” says Kyle.
British Columbia Real Estate Association chief economist Brendon Ogmundson acknowledges the Buy Canadian sentiment and concerns about U.S. political volatility, but finds it difficult to track if these factors are materially pushing the needle in B.C.
Rather, he points to the restrictive regulations in B.C. that make owning a second home a “pretty expensive proposition” as having a more noticeable impact on the province’s recreational property market.
Increases to the province’s vacancy tax and continuing restrictions on short-term rentals will continue to be the biggest obstacles to out-of-province and international buyers looking to secure property in B.C.
In addition to the federal foreign buyer ban, now extended to 2027, B.C. has increased its speculation and vacancy tax (SVT). Effective this year, Canadian citizens and permanent residents will see the SVT raise from 0.5 to one per cent, while the SVT on foreign owners who purchased property prior to the federal ban will increase from two to three per cent.
The SVT was introduced in 2018 in an effort to create more affordable housing by turning empty units into homes. Expanded in 2023, the tax currently applies to 59 municipalities across B.C., including popular recreational property hot spots such as Salmon Arm, Vernon, Lake Country, Kelowna and Penticton.
The SVT does provide some exemptions, including regions such as the Kootenays, towns such as Osoyoos and developments such as Predator Ridge and SilverStar in Vernon and Big White in Kelowna.
Ogmundson says both the combination of a foreign buyer ban and the SVT create a “major financial disincentive for recreational buyers.” It’s compounded by the short-term rental ban in about 65 B.C. communities, meant to push “ghost hotels” back into the long-term rental market.
In fact, Hawker observes that while the buyer base in Canmore is traditionally dominated by Albertans from Calgary, Edmonton and Red Deer, there has been a steady trend of buyers from the Vancouver area cashing out of high-equity markets to move to Canmore. He attributes some of this movement to recent regulatory changes in B.C.
Overall, Ogmundson’s has noticed a cooling off in B.C.’s recreational property segment over the past year, leading to an increase in unsold inventory and putting downward pressure on prices – which, for condos, fell about four per cent in the Central Okanagan and Shuswap in 2025.
“Condo sales have been very weak for the past couple of years, which has allowed listings to build up,” he says. “For example, there’s a lot of unsold inventory in Kelowna that hit the market at the end of last year, and that’s likely going to put some further downward pressure on prices.
“But it also means more choice if you are looking for a condo in some of those markets.”
Ogmundson adds that cities can opt out of STR regulations if their vacancy rate exceeds three per cent. With Kelowna’s vacancy rate approaching six per cent, the city could opt out in the coming year, which could reignite investor interest.
Ogmundson identifies the Kootenay region as a distinct outlier compared to the rest of province’s recreational property hot spots. While most B.C. markets have slowed down, the Kootenay market has brushed it off and set record high prices in the process.
The median price in the Kootenays has surged to more than $500,000, a significant increase from under $300,000 only five years ago.
Despite this growth, Ogmundson notes the Kootenays remain one of the more affordable sectors where buyers can still find lakefront properties for under $1 million.
“It’s a massively diverse area, so it’s hard to generalize. But if you’re a rec buyer, that’s where the deals are,” he says.
In contrast, markets such as the Okanagan have become much more expensive, with the central Okanagan median price approaching $750,000 and lakefront properties exceeding $1 million.
Other areas such as Revelstoke are recording a median price of approximately $650,000.
Looking forward, experts expect a recovery story where markets return to long-term averages. Ogmundson anticipates sales activity in the Okanagan will return to within five per cent of the 10-year average, while sales in the Kootenays will come down slightly as affordability constraints begin to impact the region.
He cites the volatility surrounding U.S. trade negotiations and tariff threats could weigh heavily on buyer confidence.
In Canmore, Hawker similarly expects sales volume to remain in line with recent years. He anticipates pricing for single-family and condos to increase by 1.5 and four per cent, respectively.
“There are still a lot of people buying because they want to be here and they are planning on being here for a considerable amount of time,” he says.